Live AI release markets
New AI model release radar
A self-updating 14-day view of contracts for upcoming AI model releases, discovered from Polymarket's AI Releases tag and broader AI feed. Use it to watch launch odds before models hit public catalogues. The window starts today and looks 14 days ahead. Live odds refresh every minute Sunday and weekdays. Candidates are not preselected. If fewer than five distinct model families qualify inside the window, the nearest later qualified release markets fill the remaining rows. After a model appears in a public catalogue, track it on recently available and the scored rankings; evidence rules are documented in the methodology.
- By Sep 22~80% odds
Next Claude Opus
Anthropic
Highest single-day market: Sep 22, 2026 at ~81%. Exact-day books are thin and noisy; the cutoff ladder remains the primary signal. View daily ladder
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 22, 2026?
Market-implied midpoint: 78¢–82¢. This lower-liquidity market supplies a dated signal, but it cannot produce a market date estimate. Only a current active public-release market is shown; one-sided signals are labelled as indicative. View market
- By Sep 23~10% odds
Next Claude Sonnet
Anthropic
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 23, 2026?
Market-implied midpoint: 9¢–10¢. This lower-liquidity market supplies a dated signal, but it cannot produce a market date estimate. Only a current active public-release market is shown; one-sided signals are labelled as indicative. View market
- By Sep 24~56% odds
Next GPT Luna (5.7+)
OpenAI
Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by September 24, 2026?
Market-implied midpoint: 55¢–57¢. This lower-liquidity market supplies a dated signal, but it cannot produce a market date estimate. Only a current active public-release market is shown; one-sided signals are labelled as indicative. View market
- By Sep 30~95% odds ▲3%
Next GPT Sol (5.7+)
OpenAI
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?
Market-implied midpoint: 95¢–96¢. This lower-liquidity market supplies a dated signal, but it cannot produce a market date estimate. The Yes price moved up 3 points in the last 24 hours. Only a current active public-release market is shown; one-sided signals are labelled as indicative. View market
- By Sep 30~79% odds ▲29%
Next Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+)
Google
Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by September 30, 2026?
Market-implied midpoint: 78¢–79¢. This lower-liquidity market supplies a dated signal, but it cannot produce a market date estimate. The Yes price moved up 29 points in the last 24 hours. Only a current active public-release market is shown; one-sided signals are labelled as indicative. View market
Soonest meaningful date first — today if a cutoff due today is a real shot, otherwise the closest date that is not a near-certain no. Odds rotate names that share a date, but a later favorite (92% by 30 Sep) does not jump a nearer live deadline (46% by 15 Sep). A 1–2% near date does not occupy a slot ahead of that. A family the board already lists as released gives its slot back. ▲/▼ is the 24-hour move in a market's release odds. Live odds refresh every minute Sunday and weekdays.
How to read the radar
A percentage is the midpoint of the market's current Yes bid and ask for the linked “released by” question, unless it is explicitly labelled as an indicative one-sided price. A green ▲ or red ▼ is the 24-hour move in those odds—rises usually follow news, while falls can simply be time running out on a deadline. A market date estimate is an explicitly labelled interpolation of several compatible cutoff markets—not a promised date, a ModelCap prediction, or a recommendation to trade. The page omits undated rumors, stale quotes, and unrelated AI markets. Rows run soonest meaningful date first: a cutoff due today leads when it is a real shot, otherwise the closest date that is not a near-certain no. Odds rotate who holds a slot on that date. A later favorite (92% by 30 Sep) does not jump a nearer live deadline (46% by 15 Sep), and a 1–2% near date does not occupy a row ahead of either.