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ModelCap

AI release markets

New AI model release radar

Source-linked contracts for upcoming AI model releases, discovered from Polymarket's AI Releases tag and broader AI feed. The homepage prioritizes the nearest qualifying cutoff for five distinct families, with later forecasts clearly labeled when this week is sparse. A contract cutoff or interpolated market estimate is not an official launch date. Candidates are not preselected; useful research links fill slots when fewer than five genuine qualifying families exist. After a model appears in a public catalogue, track it on recently available and the scored rankings; evidence rules are documented in the methodology.

  • Next Astra Model (6.1+)

    OpenAI · by today

    6%▼16% 24h

    Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 6, 2026? View market

  • Next Fable Model (5.2+)

    Anthropic · by Nov 9

    8%▼1% 24h

    Highest single-day market: Nov 19, 2026 at 6%. View daily ladder

    Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 9, 2026? View market

  • Gemini Carbon

    Google

    Est. Nov 11market estimate

    Highest single-day market: Nov 10, 2026 at 34%. View daily ladder

    Market-estimated date: Nov 11, 2026. The market's derived 25–75% window is Nov 10, 2026–Nov 12, 2026, based on 4 compatible release-by cutoffs. This is an interpolation of market odds, not publisher guidance.

    Gemini Carbon released by November 11, 2026? View market

  • Next GPT Sol (6.2+)

    OpenAI · by Nov 15

    66%▼12% 24h

    Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 15, 2026? View market

  • Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+)

    Qwen · by Nov 30

    96%▲10% 24h

    Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by November 30, 2026? View market

Soonest meaningful date first — today if a cutoff due today is a real shot, otherwise the closest date that is not a near-certain no. Odds rotate names that share a date, but a later favorite (92% by 30 Sep) does not jump a nearer live deadline (46% by 15 Sep). A 1–2% near date does not occupy a slot ahead of that. A family the board already lists as released gives its slot back. ▲/▼ is the 24-hour move in a market's release odds, written as Polymarket writes it: 76% rising to 90% shows ▲14%, a change of 14 percentage points. Market resolution is not a verified public-release date. Quotes are polled every minute; source timestamps and delayed status describe the evidence actually available.

How to read the radar

A percentage is the market's current Yes price for the linked “released by” question: the chance traders put on a public release by that date. A green ▲ or red ▼ figure is the 24-hour move in those odds, written as Polymarket writes it: 76% rising to 90% shows ▲14%, a change of 14 percentage points, not 14% of 76. Rises usually follow news, while falls can simply be time running out on a deadline. A market date estimate is an explicitly labelled interpolation of several compatible cutoff markets—not a promised date, a ModelCap prediction, or a recommendation to trade. The page omits undated rumors, stale quotes, and unrelated AI markets. Rows run soonest meaningful date first: a cutoff due today leads when it is a real shot, otherwise the closest date that is not a near-certain no. Odds rotate who holds a slot on that date. A later favorite (92% by 30 Sep) does not jump a nearer live deadline (46% by 15 Sep), and a 1–2% near date does not occupy a row ahead of either.