Measured

publisher-corpus-prior over 185 held-out anchors (60%); 1 specialist-board observation at 2.1% support (40%); shrunk 14.3 toward the measured corpus

Estimated

global-corpus-prior over 185 held-out anchors (48%); launch card against 2 resolved peers on 10 rows (52%); exceeds every named peer on 3 of 10 rows; optimism haircut 0 from cross-lab-probe; shrunk 4.3 toward the measured corpus