Measured

publisher-corpus-prior over 203 held-out anchors (23%); 1 specialist-board observation at 1.2% support (13%); launch card against 2 resolved peers on 12 rows (65%); exceeds every named peer on 6 of 12 rows; optimism haircut 0 from cross-lab-probe; shrunk 3.9 up toward the measured corpus

Estimated

global-corpus-prior over 203 held-out anchors (22%); launch card against 2 resolved peers on 10 rows (78%); exceeds every named peer on 10 of 10 rows; optimism haircut 0 from cross-lab-probe; shrunk 3.6 toward the measured corpus