Measured

publisher-corpus-prior over 183 held-out anchors (36%); 1 specialist-board observation at 1.3% support (21%); launch card against 2 resolved peers on 12 rows (44%); exceeds every named peer on 6 of 12 rows; optimism haircut 0 from cross-lab-probe; shrunk 7.8 up toward the measured corpus

Estimated

global-corpus-prior over 183 held-out anchors (15%); launch card against 6 resolved peers on 3 rows (85%); no cross-lab optimism probe available; shrunk 2.5 toward the measured corpus