Estimated

global-corpus-prior over 194 held-out anchors (50%); launch card against 2 resolved peers on 8 rows (50%); exceeds every named peer on 1 of 8 rows; optimism haircut 1.3 from cross-lab-probe; shrunk 4.1 up toward the measured corpus

Measured

global-corpus-prior over 194 held-out anchors (65%); 1 specialist-board observation at 1.3% support (35%); shrunk 5.6 up toward the measured corpus