Estimated

publisher-corpus-prior over 186 held-out anchors (7%); launch card against 3 resolved peers on 5 rows (93%); no cross-lab optimism probe available; shrunk 1.6 up toward the measured corpus

Estimated

global-corpus-prior over 186 held-out anchors (20%); launch card against 2 resolved peers on 6 rows (80%); exceeds every named peer on 5 of 6 rows; optimism haircut 3 from cross-lab-probe; shrunk 2.2 up toward the measured corpus