Measured

global-corpus-prior over 215 held-out anchors (59%); 1 specialist-board observation at 2.1% support (41%); shrunk 6.4 toward the measured corpus

Estimated

global-corpus-prior over 215 held-out anchors (9%); launch card against 4 resolved peers on 12 rows (92%); exceeds every named peer on 2 of 12 rows; optimism haircut 0 from cross-lab-probe; shrunk 0.3 toward the measured corpus