{
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-30T20:54:24.517Z",
  "source": "ModelCap retained first prediction and settled outcome records; extracted read-only from Ohio live ledger",
  "ledgerDigest": "9e00e6a03d36affd9f0db0b4e3736333e6d2cbdb41a36f98e2d6ea1ca74b6a66",
  "records": [
    {
      "modelId": "x-ai/grok-4.6",
      "identityKey": "x-ai::x-ai/grok-4.6::default::catalogue-product",
      "predictionId": "093d4694e40e0d66a7e1933213c3a5fa",
      "predictedAt": "2026-09-06T03:24:08.214Z",
      "measuredAt": "2026-09-06T03:37:10.815Z",
      "revision": 0,
      "predicted": 74.1,
      "interval80": [
        62.5,
        85.7
      ],
      "terms": [
        {
          "channel": "corpus-prior",
          "share": 0.151
        },
        {
          "channel": "family-succession",
          "share": 0.569
        },
        {
          "channel": "measured-specialist",
          "share": 0.28
        }
      ],
      "measured": 74,
      "signedError": 0.1,
      "covered80": true,
      "boards": [
        "ARC-AGI-2 Verified",
        "ARC-AGI-3 Verified",
        "Arena Overall",
        "LMArena Agent"
      ]
    },
    {
      "modelId": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731",
      "identityKey": "deepseek::deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-0731::fp8::catalogue-product",
      "predictionId": "648e3e6e2db546f192c336a640a2e4d9",
      "predictedAt": "2026-09-05T10:21:30.981Z",
      "measuredAt": "2026-09-06T23:22:21.320Z",
      "revision": 0,
      "predicted": 75.8,
      "interval80": [
        68.5,
        83.1
      ],
      "terms": [
        {
          "channel": "corpus-prior",
          "share": 0.06
        },
        {
          "channel": "measured-specialist",
          "share": 0.042
        },
        {
          "channel": "within-card",
          "share": 0.898
        }
      ],
      "measured": 73.3,
      "signedError": 2.5,
      "covered80": true,
      "boards": [
        "ARC-AGI-2 Verified",
        "Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index"
      ]
    },
    {
      "modelId": "deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro-0813",
      "identityKey": "deepseek::deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro-0813::fp8::catalogue-product",
      "predictionId": "e4b58bc21ca32c304323cd3249e1c41a",
      "predictedAt": "2026-09-05T10:21:30.981Z",
      "measuredAt": "2026-09-06T23:22:21.320Z",
      "revision": 0,
      "predicted": 77.3,
      "interval80": [
        68.5,
        86.2
      ],
      "terms": [
        {
          "channel": "corpus-prior",
          "share": 0.088
        },
        {
          "channel": "measured-specialist",
          "share": 0.063
        },
        {
          "channel": "within-card",
          "share": 0.849
        }
      ],
      "measured": 74.5,
      "signedError": 2.8,
      "covered80": true,
      "boards": [
        "ARC-AGI-2 Verified",
        "Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index"
      ]
    },
    {
      "modelId": "meta/muse-glimmer-30b",
      "identityKey": "meta::meta/muse-glimmer-30b::default::catalogue-product",
      "predictionId": "a259983ac109f93bdf11343bd853ad1c",
      "predictedAt": "2026-09-05T10:21:30.981Z",
      "measuredAt": "2026-09-06T23:22:21.320Z",
      "revision": 0,
      "predicted": 70,
      "interval80": [
        46.5,
        93.6
      ],
      "terms": [
        {
          "channel": "corpus-prior",
          "share": 0.624
        },
        {
          "channel": "measured-specialist",
          "share": 0.376
        }
      ],
      "measured": 56.4,
      "signedError": 13.6,
      "covered80": true,
      "boards": [
        "Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index",
        "WildClawBench OpenClaw"
      ]
    },
    {
      "modelId": "nvidia/nemotron-3-ultra-550b-a55b",
      "identityKey": "nvidia::nvidia/nemotron-3-ultra-550b-a55b::bf16::catalogue-product",
      "predictionId": "e0871fb91e429c046c1d07c6dfaeffb4",
      "predictedAt": "2026-09-05T05:09:42.168Z",
      "measuredAt": "2026-09-06T23:22:21.320Z",
      "revision": 0,
      "predicted": 70.8,
      "interval80": [
        63.5,
        78.1
      ],
      "terms": [
        {
          "channel": "corpus-prior",
          "share": 0.053
        },
        {
          "channel": "measured-specialist",
          "share": 0.041
        },
        {
          "channel": "within-card",
          "share": 0.906
        }
      ],
      "measured": 60.7,
      "signedError": 10.1,
      "covered80": false,
      "boards": [
        "Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index",
        "LMArena Agent"
      ]
    },
    {
      "modelId": "openai/gpt-6-astra",
      "identityKey": "openai::openai/gpt-6-astra::default::catalogue-product",
      "predictionId": "40181a29ec76ac164fdec93571f3e812",
      "predictedAt": "2026-09-05T10:21:30.981Z",
      "measuredAt": "2026-09-06T23:22:21.320Z",
      "revision": 0,
      "predicted": 66.7,
      "interval80": [
        45.7,
        87.7
      ],
      "terms": [
        {
          "channel": "corpus-prior",
          "share": 0.496
        },
        {
          "channel": "measured-specialist",
          "share": 0.504
        }
      ],
      "measured": 87.7,
      "signedError": -21,
      "covered80": true,
      "boards": [
        "ARC-AGI-2 Verified",
        "ARC-AGI-3 Verified",
        "Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index"
      ]
    },
    {
      "modelId": "moonshotai/kimi-k2.7-code",
      "identityKey": "moonshotai::moonshotai/kimi-k2.7-code::default::catalogue-product",
      "predictionId": "540ab40e31f919c4743d3317639a9c19",
      "predictedAt": "2026-09-05T05:09:42.168Z",
      "measuredAt": "2026-09-07T05:59:50.876Z",
      "revision": 0,
      "predicted": 60.6,
      "interval80": [
        39.5,
        81.6
      ],
      "terms": [
        {
          "channel": "corpus-prior",
          "share": 0.442
        },
        {
          "channel": "measured-specialist",
          "share": 0.558
        }
      ],
      "measured": 64.5,
      "signedError": -3.9,
      "covered80": true,
      "boards": [
        "Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index",
        "LMArena Agent",
        "WildClawBench OpenClaw"
      ]
    },
    {
      "modelId": "google/gemma-4-31b-it",
      "identityKey": "google::google/gemma-4-31b-it::default::catalogue-product",
      "predictionId": "7edefe445ea283f17eb34819689e3270",
      "predictedAt": "2026-09-09T21:50:24.746Z",
      "measuredAt": "2026-09-09T22:25:31.641Z",
      "revision": 0,
      "predicted": 52.5,
      "interval80": [
        29.4,
        75.6
      ],
      "terms": [
        {
          "channel": "corpus-prior",
          "share": 0.638
        },
        {
          "channel": "measured-specialist",
          "share": 0.362
        }
      ],
      "measured": 69.6,
      "signedError": -17.1,
      "covered80": true,
      "boards": [
        "Arena Coding",
        "Arena Overall",
        "WildClawBench OpenClaw"
      ]
    },
    {
      "modelId": "meta/muse-spark-1.3",
      "identityKey": "meta::meta/muse-spark-1.3::default::catalogue-product",
      "predictionId": "00fdecd70cc81f12179843238c7db3d8",
      "predictedAt": "2026-09-05T10:21:30.981Z",
      "measuredAt": "2026-09-12T08:26:36.145Z",
      "revision": 0,
      "predicted": 81.5,
      "interval80": [
        67.9,
        95.2
      ],
      "terms": [
        {
          "channel": "corpus-prior",
          "share": 0.21
        },
        {
          "channel": "family-succession",
          "share": 0.79
        }
      ],
      "measured": 88.4,
      "signedError": -6.9,
      "covered80": true,
      "boards": [
        "Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index",
        "LMArena Agent"
      ]
    },
    {
      "modelId": "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash",
      "identityKey": "deepseek::deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash::fp8::catalogue-product",
      "predictionId": "1ca38880faee545b8d6ffcb30478fbbb",
      "predictedAt": "2026-09-10T11:40:10.303Z",
      "measuredAt": "2026-09-15T05:33:33.866Z",
      "revision": 0,
      "predicted": 65.2,
      "interval80": [
        51.6,
        78.8
      ],
      "terms": [
        {
          "channel": "corpus-prior",
          "share": 0.218
        },
        {
          "channel": "family-succession",
          "share": 0.782
        }
      ],
      "measured": 74,
      "signedError": -8.8,
      "covered80": true,
      "boards": [
        "Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index",
        "LMArena Agent"
      ]
    },
    {
      "modelId": "xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-flash",
      "identityKey": "xiaomi::xiaomi/mimo-v2.6-flash::fp8::catalogue-product",
      "predictionId": "80690425b366f2ef101c28f670799a52",
      "predictedAt": "2026-09-22T19:51:26.424Z",
      "measuredAt": "2026-09-27T04:44:26.747Z",
      "revision": 0,
      "predicted": 84.2,
      "interval80": [
        75.8,
        92.6
      ],
      "terms": [
        {
          "channel": "corpus-prior",
          "share": 0.082
        },
        {
          "channel": "within-card",
          "share": 0.918
        }
      ],
      "measured": 73.8,
      "signedError": 10.4,
      "covered80": false,
      "boards": [
        "Arena Coding",
        "Arena Overall"
      ]
    },
    {
      "modelId": "openai/gpt-6.1-sol",
      "identityKey": "openai::openai/gpt-6.1-sol::default::catalogue-product",
      "predictionId": "f72682bf47a8c77303606899002e304a",
      "predictedAt": "2026-09-29T17:48:47.517Z",
      "measuredAt": "2026-09-30T20:54:24.517Z",
      "revision": 0,
      "predicted": 74.3,
      "interval80": [
        60.7,
        87.9
      ],
      "terms": [
        {
          "channel": "corpus-prior",
          "share": 0.213
        },
        {
          "channel": "family-succession",
          "share": 0.787
        }
      ],
      "measured": 88.2,
      "signedError": -13.9,
      "covered80": false,
      "boards": [
        "ARC-AGI-2 Verified",
        "ARC-AGI-3 Verified",
        "Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index"
      ]
    }
  ]
}
